Posts Tagged ‘Great Recession’

The Impact of the Great Recession on Trade

Wednesday, February 11th, 2009

The new trade data out today show, unhappily, that the surest way to drive down our trade deficit is a deep recession that cuts into the money Americans have to buy imports. In December, the trade imbalance fell to less than $40 billion, a 35 percent drop from its $62 billion level last July. (It’s all seasonally-adjusted.) The last time the trade deficit was this low was November 2003. Imports shrank by $74 billion, from $230 billion in July to $174 billion in December, or nearly 25 percent. Of course, the same thing is happening to our trading partners: Our exports also fell 21 percent, from $168 billion to $134 billion. Since we import so much more than we export, the decline in imports really drives down the overall deficit.

This is a window into something new and important: With globalization, the world can suffer the central cost of protectionism — a deep fall in trade — without passing any new laws or regulations. The crux of it is that as the share of what the world produces that’s traded across borders rises — 18 percent of worldwide GDP was traded in 1990, compared to 30 percent in 2006 — a serious recession in a few large places moves quickly around the world, driving down global trade. That’s particularly serious for countries that really depend on exports, which means most of the developing world. The global data are still sketchy; but it looks like in the last months of 2008 and the beginning of this year, exports (month-to-month) fell 25 percent in China, 33 percent in Korea, and 40 percent in the Philippines. To see how serious this is, consider that exports represent about 40 percent of GDP in all of those countries. It’s even worse in Taiwan, where exports account for 62 percent of GDP and fell 44 percent rate in November, compared to a year earlier. The other deeply trade-dependent region is Europe, where serious problems coming from this massive slowdown in trade will hit home within the next few months.

The serious problem which they and others will face is fast-rising job losses by the people who produce the exports and those who make the goods and services that those workers purchase. So, as the world slides into this Great Recession, calls for new forms of protection for export industries are cropping up all over the place. We certainly hear these calls here, even though the United States for decades has been generally more accommodating of our trading partners than they have been towards us. We’ve pressed for more trade liberalization, pressed for it earlier, and stuck with generally low trade barriers and an aggressive global economic footprint more than our major trade partners. Countries like Japan, France and Germany don’t provide a very high threshold on these matters, to be sure, but we have consistently cleared it.

Yet, here we are today, on the brink of passing a “Buy America” provision that will bar the use of foreign-made manufactured products and goods in many projects supported by the stimulus package. President Obama said he wanted the Senate to dial it back, since he understands that it would invite real retaliation that would injure more export-industry workers. So, the Senators added a caveat that the restrictions can’t violate our WTO obligations. Here’s the translation of that: “Buy America” will mainly target developing countries, because Japan, EU nations and other advanced countries are all signatories to WTO agreements to not discriminate against other countries in many areas, including government procurement. China, Brazil, India and most other developing nations are not yet signatories. So, we can expect a good dose of tit-for-tat protection from those countries. And that could disrupt the production networks and supply chains of some of our largest, global companies, such as Dell, Coca-Cola, Boeing and Pfizer At a time of grave economic turmoil and peril, this can’t make any sense.

And we’ll still be vulnerable to legitimate, tit-for-tat from Europe and Japan, since they currently apply lower tariffs in many areas than mandated by the WTO. That means they could raise their tariffs without violating their WTO agreements — and we could do the same in the next round of retaliation.

The best way to cauterize this drive for protection is to take a deep breath, and make sure that workers have greater means to protect themselves. The administration is offering some of that, for example, in health care benefits for those who lose their jobs. We can go well beyond health care, however, especially in real opportunities for working people to expand or deepen their skills and abilities. That remains a serious gap in the stimulus, which hopefully the first Obama budget can rectify.

Shedding Light on the Stimulus Package

Wednesday, February 4th, 2009

While the chorus of complaints about President Obama’s spending and tax package was dispiritingly predictable, the post-partisan surprise is that its basic structure is evolving to just about where it should be. The legislative process is adding its normal quotient of special interest subsidies on both the spending and tax sides — think of it as a “congressional tax,” because they really can’t help themselves. And, compared to the last decade of limitless tolerance for the unregulated escapades of Wall Street financiers that’s now pushing many of the world’s economies over a cliff, the partisan outrage at this conventional if distasteful part of the legislative process seems pretty hollow.

The important matter here is that at its core, the package should do roughly what we should want it to — with one gaping exception — given the gravity of current conditions and our equally serious, longer-term problems with wages and jobs. In effect, the administration has cleverly packaged some broadly useful, longer-term economic and social initiatives with some traditional “stimulus,” and it’s selling it as the answer to the crisis. It provides some of that answer — unfortunately, not all of it by a long shot — but it also offers the administration’s first responses to other legitimate matters on which President Obama happened to win his election.

First, there are at least $230 billion dollars in clear economic stimulus — notably, some $65 billion for more food stamps and an extension of unemployment benefits and $30 billion in other assistance for low-income households, all of which will directly support consumption; and another $80 billion in large grants to states dealing with fast-falling revenues and balanced budget requirements, which will save jobs and so also support consumption. There also are about $50 billion out of a larger pot of infrastructure projects that can properly count as stimulus — for schools, highways, transit, public hospitals, and so on — because they can get started fairly quickly and absorb idle resources (that’s mainly idle construction and machine workers, and equipment). Then there’s nearly $90 billion for state Medicaid programs. That’s not stimulus precisely, but it will relieve states from having to choose between cutting medical treatment for poor and elderly people or cutting other jobs and purchases to maintain those treatments. Given our circumstances, there are no sensible, post-partisan arguments against these provisions.

The second tranche of the package provides some $250 billion in tax cuts, most of it the first stage of the President’s promised tax relief for the now-famous “95 percent of Americans” plus another year of relief from the Alternative Minimum Tax’s slide down the income scale. There’s no point calling this stimulus. The fix in the AMT is an annual ritual which would happen with or without the package. A small package of business tax cuts (maybe $20 billion) also will do little economic good or harm. And the same can be said of the personal tax cuts. The best guess of economists is that 75 to 80 percent of that will be saved with no stimulus effect, since 60 percent of last spring’s rebates were saved and anxieties over falling incomes, job losses, or worse have all intensified since then. But they’re still worth doing as progressive, post-partisan down payments on using the tax code to respond to the sharp increases in inequality under our recent, unlamented conservative regime. It certainly would be better to adopt these kinds of changes as part of a broader reform of the tax code. But as tax changes go, they have the unusual virtue of actually helping most people.

Finally there’s a third group of some $220 billion in new public investment s — in education, training, broadband, clean tech, environmental cleanups, modernizing the electricity grid, energy efficiency, health care IT and medical research, and yes, more as well. The current Great Recession is brutal, and it’s getting worse; but one reason it’s so painful is that it followed an economic expansion in which, the income data tell us, most Americans barely held their own ground. These investments are close enough to a post-partisan agenda for raising the productivity of the overall economy as well as millions of workers, plus a small down-payment on addressing climate change. And the productivity pieces, at least, could begin to address the remarkable, recent stagnation in most people’s incomes. It will take much more than that to restore the strong wage and job gains we saw in the 1990s, notably serious cost containment in health care and a lot more energy efficiency than is in sight right now. But it’s a useful first step.

So it’s not just “stimulus,” but also the heart of the President’s first year agenda — and on balance, that’s a good thing. The missing piece remains what we have lamented for six months now (check the blog) — there’s still no new policy to stem the rising foreclosure rates driving the freeze in the capital markets, which in turn propelled the worst global downturn in 75 years. Without that, the stimulus and the new investments will have little lasting effect. So that remains the most important, unfinished business of the President’s first 100 days.