February 12, 2024

Based on Incomes, Americans Are a Lot Better Off Under…

In their only 1980 presidential debate, Ronald Reagan posed a famous question that sealed Jimmy Carter's political fate: "Are you better now than you were four years ago?" Bill Clinton similarly denied George H. W. Bush a second term in 1992 by running a campaign based on James Carville's famous expression, "It's the economy, stupid." Donald Trump faces a real… Continue reading

January 26, 2024

Data Don’t Lie: Biden’s Economic Record is Much Better than…

Donald Trump's prospects for a second presidential term may well rest on whether voters accept his proposition that facts no longer matter.  A case in point is his narrative that the economy was stronger during his presidency than under President Joe Biden. With few reality checks from the economic media, most of the public apparently agrees:  One recent survey found…Continue reading

December 12, 2023

Why Biden’s Good Economic News Hasn’t Helped Him Politically —…

Americans’ negative views about President Joe Biden’s stewardship of the economy may be the biggest challenge to his reelection. Despite healthy GDP growth and the largest job gains on record over his 35 months in office, the latest Gallup poll found that people disapprove of the president’s handling of the economy by a 67-to-32 percent margin. The latest Morning Consult survey reported that 51 percent…Continue reading

October 10, 2023

When You Know How Polls Work, You Realize that the…

Despite four criminal indictments with 91 felony charges, recent surveys show Donald Trump leading Joe Biden narrowly. Or by as much as 10 points. Or trailing by a point or two. Or down by five. This array of results has left many Democrats and some Republicans anxious about their candidate’s prospects. They should take a breath and get back to…Continue reading

September 6, 2023

Trade Agreements Have Created U.S. Jobs And Raised U.S. Incomes

The rising political opposition to open trade from both the left and the right is an instance, and one among many, of how today’s policy debates become decoupled from reality.  On this Labor Day week, recognizing how our current trade and investment arrangements generate broad benefits for workers and consumers matters, lest the growing anti-trade faction unwittingly unravels them. A…Continue reading

August 7, 2023

Oops! Ron DeSantis’s Economic Program and Critique Make the Case…for…

Despite Donald Trump’s indictments and looming trials, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis faces virtually insurmountable challenges in his bid to defeat his party’s cult leader and win the GOP nomination.  In the latest reboot of his faltering campaign, DeSantis has shifted his attention away from woke to the economy. This effort will almost certainly fail, but it’s instructive because the DeSantis…Continue reading

June 15, 2023

More Encouraging News on Inflation Means the Fed Should Pause…

The Biden administration has pulled off a remarkable two-step—at once, beating inflation while expanding employment. In both cases, policy decisions drove the results—10 interest rate increases to tame inflation; and, to bolster employment, major stimulus for the pandemic, followed by programs of large-scale infrastructure investments and tax benefits aimed at bolstering American industry in areas such as clean energy and…Continue reading

May 23, 2023

Why Don’t Americans Recognize that Inflation is Down and Incomes…

My late boss, Senator Daniel Patrick Moynihan, a sage and successful politician, once told me that in politics, “If you don’t get credit, it didn’t happen.”  The White House and congressional Democrats need to relearn that lesson.  In March 2022, 75 percent of Americans thought the economy was flailing despite more than a year of historic gains in GDP and…Continue reading

May 2, 2023

The Debt Ceiling, Austerity, and the Economic Challenges Haunting President…

The latest reports on real growth and personal incomes issued last week by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) include equally cautionary news for the economy and President Biden's prospects in 2024.  Employment, incomes, and consumer spending all remain strong despite sharply higher interest rates.  But the economy is balanced on a knife’s edge because businesses have been cutting back…Continue reading