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Even Reagan Raised Taxes

February 3, 2010

It's budget week in Washington, and the $1.27 trillion deficit projected for fiscal 2011 should remind us that deep recessions, especially when accompanied by large spending sprees, produce outsized deficits ] for years to come. The federal government has been down this road recently before, first under Ronald Reagan and then George H. W. Bush and Bill Clinton. The way those presidents responded can help us chart the likely path of fiscal policy for the next half decade.

Presidential budgets are always a little overwhelming. Barack Obama's, for example, has a surprising number of proposals usually seen in Republican budgets‐‐new tax breaks for business, including ending capital gains tax on new investments in small businesses; a freeze on large areas of discretionary spending; termination of some 120 small federal programs; and increases in military spending. Less unexpected, Obama's budget brings back proposals from past Democratic plans, including big spending increases for higher education, infrastructure and research and development; tax hikes for big banks, big oil and big coal; and higher tax rates for high‐income people (by letting the Bush tax cuts for top earners expire and by cutting back carried interest).

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