Global Investors Are Telling Donald Trump His Deficits and National…
Washington is unnerved these days about budget deficits and the national debt. Deficit angst comes along periodically, often as a pretext for cutting social spending. This time, however, there’s genuine cause for alarm. Outsized deficits are par for the course when the economy is in recession or reeling from a shock like the pandemic or the financial collapse; most of… Continue reading
How much credit does Donald Trump deserve on the economy?…
Presidents deserve credit on the economy when their policy changes leave most people better off by creating conditions that stimulate employment, growth, investment, or consumer spending. Donald Trump’s tax and spending program approved by the GOP Congress in late 2017 has changed certain economic conditions. While it’s still early for a final judgment on Trump’s economic record, the results so…Continue reading
Why Americans Distrust and Fear Immigrants
Donald Trump demonstrated the power and broad appeal of attacking immigrants in 2016, with special emphasis on non-white immigrants. He did it again in last year’s midterm elections, when his passionate followers seemingly were unmoved by the cruelty of separating young children from their mothers at the border, or by Trump’s audacious claim of presidential powers to nullify the constitutional…Continue reading
The Economic Tea Leaves Point to a Downturn in 2020
Do the latest economic data signal a recession is coming? The best answer is, yes, but not quite yet: The economic tea leaves point to a recession beginning over the next 12 to 15 months – so, just in time for the 2020 presidential campaign. The jobs numbers for February were released last Friday, and they were awful – gains…Continue reading
The Shutdown Poses a Serious Threat to the American Economy
The government shutdown has produced a serious economic threat that’s hiding in plain sight: The people who collect, analyze and release all the basic data tracking the path of the economy and its principal aspects are on furlough. So, the shutdown has forced thousands of companies and financial institutions and millions of investors to rely on guesswork instead of data,…Continue reading
The Other Dark Cloud on the President’s Horizon Is a…
Even as Donald Trump struggles with the multiple investigations of his personal business and political dealing and those of his children, his presidential campaign, inaugural committee, businesses and foundation, he will also have to keep a close eye on the economy. The economy’s course in 2019 will help shape the political environment for Americans as they weigh the results of…Continue reading
The Latest Outlook on the Economy: Another Canary Swoons
For several months, I’ve written about growing signals of a possible recession perhaps 10 to 15 months from now. The yield curve has flattened dramatically, because global investors are nervous about our near-term prospects. Investment growth after depreciation has slowed, even with Trump’s costly tax cuts. Inflation has picked up some steam, and interest rates have risen accordingly. Most important,…Continue reading
Don’t be fooled: Working Americans are worse off under Trump
Despite robust economic numbers during the Trump presidency, the American public has seemed curiously unmoved by good news such as the lowest U.S. unemployment level in nearly half a century. Its enthusiasm might have been dampened by this underappreciated economic reality: The typical working American’s earnings, when properly measured, have declined during the Trump administration. As any White House would,…Continue reading
The decennial Census has big political and scientific problems, and…
At virtually every level, the 2020 decennial Census is in serious trouble. The Trump administration continues to press for a new Census question on each respondent’s citizenship status, despite warnings from the National Academy of Sciences and others that the question will discourage millions of immigrants and others from responding at all. The administration also has sharply cut the funding…Continue reading