Global Investors Are Telling Donald Trump His Deficits and National…
Washington is unnerved these days about budget deficits and the national debt. Deficit angst comes along periodically, often as a pretext for cutting social spending. This time, however, there’s genuine cause for alarm. Outsized deficits are par for the course when the economy is in recession or reeling from a shock like the pandemic or the financial collapse; most of… Continue reading
The Biggest Risks to the U.S. Economy Now Come from…
As summer ends, and investors and policymakers look ahead, the American economy faces a range of downside risks. Most of these risks are what economists call "exogenous," which is a fancy way of saying that they come from sources outside the economy itself. Left to itself, the economy appears set to maintain its current path of moderate growth. GDP grew…Continue reading
Washington — or Its Accountants — Finally Accept the Idea-Based…
Today, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) will put in place a set of critical changes in how it measures America's gross domestic product (GDP). The most important change reclassifies what businesses spend on research and development, which now will be counted as an economic investment rather than an ordinary business expense. By so doing, the country’s official national accounts…Continue reading
Why Job Gains Are Still So Modest — and It…
The economic recovery is now four years old -- the anniversary comes this month -- yet job growth remains a big problem. Since the recession technically ended in June 2009, American businesses have expanded their workforces at an average annual rate of 1.4 percent, creating some 6.1 million new jobs. The good news is that we’re creating new jobs at…Continue reading
The Politics and Economics of Obama’s New Climate Program
The Supreme Court's blockbuster decisions on voting rights and same-sex marriage attracted most of the attention, but President Obama also moved decisively last week, on climate change. The facts that drove the President are scientifically undisputed. Increasing concentrations of greenhouse gas emissions in the earth’s atmosphere continue to raise global temperatures; and without serious action, the long-term effects on sea…Continue reading
As the Economy Improves, Give Some Credit to Globalization
The economic news and data have turned distinctly upbeat. With unemployment down, consumer confidence up, and personal debt back to normal levels, it was no surprise when last week's revised report on first quarter GDP showed consumer spending rising at twice the rate of the preceding three quarters. Housing investment is now increasing at a 14 percent rate, following a…Continue reading
America Is No Longer a Top Destination for Immigrants
American exceptionalism has become a theme of our immigration debate. From both sides, we hear that America is a uniquely desirable place that, for good or ill, draws an outsized share of the world's immigrants. The truth of this matter is that large-scale immigration is a worldwide phenomenon tied to contemporary globalization. Porous borders and rising education levels have allowed…Continue reading
Bringing Foreign-Based Cyberterrorists to Justice in America
By Paul Stockton As you read this, U.S. adversaries are scouring our financial system, electric power grid, and other parts of our critical infrastructure for vulnerabilities to cyber sabotage. President Obama's Deputy National Security Advisor for Homeland Security and Counterterrorism, Lisa Monaco, says that prosecutions of cyberterrorists "will be critical tools for deterrence and disruption" of their attacks. Before we…Continue reading
The Meaning and Misuses of GDP
America's Gross Domestic Product -- GDP -- is a very powerful statistic. Markets and politicians zealously track the quarterly numbers looking for a bottom line on how investors and the rest of us feel about our conditions and prospects. Compiled by some 2,000 economists and statisticians at the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), GDP pulls together everything they can measure…Continue reading