Trump’s Perfect Storm that Could Sink the American Economy
Donald Trump has steered the American economy into a perfect storm. In the book, film, and now in real life, a rare combination of destructive forces comes together and magnifies the damage. This storm could break the U.S. economy. Trump’s tariffs are the most destructive force. Their first-order damages begin by arbitrarily driving up the prices of every product and… Continue reading
Why Job Gains Are Still So Modest — and It…
The economic recovery is now four years old -- the anniversary comes this month -- yet job growth remains a big problem. Since the recession technically ended in June 2009, American businesses have expanded their workforces at an average annual rate of 1.4 percent, creating some 6.1 million new jobs. The good news is that we’re creating new jobs at…Continue reading
The Politics and Economics of Obama’s New Climate Program
The Supreme Court's blockbuster decisions on voting rights and same-sex marriage attracted most of the attention, but President Obama also moved decisively last week, on climate change. The facts that drove the President are scientifically undisputed. Increasing concentrations of greenhouse gas emissions in the earth’s atmosphere continue to raise global temperatures; and without serious action, the long-term effects on sea…Continue reading
As the Economy Improves, Give Some Credit to Globalization
The economic news and data have turned distinctly upbeat. With unemployment down, consumer confidence up, and personal debt back to normal levels, it was no surprise when last week's revised report on first quarter GDP showed consumer spending rising at twice the rate of the preceding three quarters. Housing investment is now increasing at a 14 percent rate, following a…Continue reading
America Is No Longer a Top Destination for Immigrants
American exceptionalism has become a theme of our immigration debate. From both sides, we hear that America is a uniquely desirable place that, for good or ill, draws an outsized share of the world's immigrants. The truth of this matter is that large-scale immigration is a worldwide phenomenon tied to contemporary globalization. Porous borders and rising education levels have allowed…Continue reading
Bringing Foreign-Based Cyberterrorists to Justice in America
By Paul Stockton As you read this, U.S. adversaries are scouring our financial system, electric power grid, and other parts of our critical infrastructure for vulnerabilities to cyber sabotage. President Obama's Deputy National Security Advisor for Homeland Security and Counterterrorism, Lisa Monaco, says that prosecutions of cyberterrorists "will be critical tools for deterrence and disruption" of their attacks. Before we…Continue reading
The Meaning and Misuses of GDP
America's Gross Domestic Product -- GDP -- is a very powerful statistic. Markets and politicians zealously track the quarterly numbers looking for a bottom line on how investors and the rest of us feel about our conditions and prospects. Compiled by some 2,000 economists and statisticians at the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), GDP pulls together everything they can measure…Continue reading
The President’s Budget and the Case for Moving Beyond Austerity
The President released his FY 2014 budget today, and right off, it makes more economic sense than most of what passes for serious fiscal discussion in DC. In particular, it offers up new public investments, uses revenues and entitlement changes to restore long-term fiscal sanity, and phases in those changes down the road when the economy (hopefully) is stronger. Apart…Continue reading
Why We All Have to Worry about Cyprus
With Europe's brazen mismanagement this week of the banking collapse in Cyprus, the Euro crisis moved closer to farce and, potentially, closer to a serious problem for the rest of us. Over the past three years, as global investors have periodically fled the government bond markets of Greece, Portugal, Ireland, Spain and Italy, Eurozone leaders have grudgingly spent $650 billion…Continue reading