Trump’s Perfect Storm that Could Sink the American Economy
Donald Trump has steered the American economy into a perfect storm. In the book, film, and now in real life, a rare combination of destructive forces comes together and magnifies the damage. This storm could break the U.S. economy. Trump’s tariffs are the most destructive force. Their first-order damages begin by arbitrarily driving up the prices of every product and… Continue reading
How a Grand Bargain on the Deficit Could Erode Social…
Paul Ryan’s new budget blueprint released this week — details to follow, as usual — will only intensify the partisan warfare over the deficit. In truth, the deficit is just a cover story here, since the real debate is over the scope and role of government itself. Ryan at least is more upfront about it than most – he includes…Continue reading
Dark Thoughts on the Coming Sequester
This week’s bout over federal spending pits Tea Party militants, conservative pundits and most Republican office holders against the President, his congressional allies and most economists who pay attention. But behind the politics, there is simply no economic basis for the immediate spending cuts that would follow the sequester — or immediate tax increases for that matter. The economy is…Continue reading
The American Dream Is in Big Trouble
The American Dream is a precious and curious thing. According to the basic narrative, if you work hard, opportunities will present themselves – which, to be sure, usually involve working even harder. And if you do this long enough, you’ll be able to raise a family in conditions that prepare your children, like you, to work hard for the opportunities…Continue reading
The Lessons of Today’s Troubling Report on GDP
This morning's disappointing report that GDP actually declined by 0.1 percent in the fourth quarter of last year is a lesson in how government and serendipity can shape our economic path, especially in the short-term. The basic elements of economic prosperity are in place. To begin, Americans are spending again: Personal consumption accelerated from a 1.6 percent increase in the…Continue reading
The New Nihilism in the Debate over the Debt Ceiling
For decades, fiscal conservatives have used congressional debates over raising the debt limit to vent their frustrations with big government. But no one seriously questioned the need to do so, not until a band of Tea Party uber-conservatives in 2011 resolved to use the debt limit as a bargaining chip in budget talks. They ignored the fact that raising the…Continue reading
Modest Progress on the Deficit Is Just What the U.S.…
One argument nearly entirely absent in the debate over the fiscal cliff issues is the effect on the economy. True, some diehard conservatives warn that without drastic steps to privatize part of Social Security and much of Medicare, our national debt will soon make us pariahs in global capital markets, on the Greek model. But there was never any economic…Continue reading
The Real Economics of the Fiscal Cliff
Thank goodness for the fiscal cliff. Without it, most of Washington would be home for the holidays, happy to put off the unpleasantness of raising taxes and cutting spending. But the truth is, the only part of the cliff that really matters right now is the Bush tax cuts. Yes, much has been made about triggering large, across-the-board cuts in…Continue reading
The Real Economics of the Fiscal Cliff
Thank goodness for the fiscal cliff. Without it, most of Washington would be home for the holidays, happy to put off the unpleasantness of raising taxes and cutting spending. But the truth is, the only part of the cliff that really matters right now is the Bush tax cuts. Yes, much has been made about triggering large, across-the-board cuts in…Continue reading