October 9, 2024

How Donald Trump is Channeling Machiavelli

This past weekend, Donald Trump and JD Vance accused their Democratic opponents of plotting to kill Trump, implicitly threatening to prosecute them should they win.  As shocking as it sounds, it was unremarkable since personal threats are a common and menacing feature of their campaign.  Since Trump announced his bid for a second term, he has threatened to investigate and… Continue reading

July 29, 2022

Hey, Folks, We’re Not in a Recession

Rules of thumb are often misleading.  Biden administration critics have seized on an axiom that two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth signal a recession, one not followed by any economist I know. Thankfully, the official arbiter of whether and when a recession has begun, the Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research, applies more nuanced…Continue reading

July 21, 2022

The Case for Bill Clinton’s Economic Record

How do you argue with success?  One answer is, become a Democrat. Joe Biden learned this lesson recently when many in his party dismissed the 5.7 percent economic growth and 6.2 million new jobs created in his first year and instead complained about his inability to corral Joe Machin to support Build Back Better.  A more far-reaching instance is the…Continue reading

June 23, 2022

A Recession is Not Looming

The media’s view of the economy has turned dark.  The Washington Post cautions its readers on “How to recession-proof your life,” ABC News talks about “How to prepare for a possible recession,” and Bloomberg says, “U.S. Recession Is Now More Likely than Not.”  These doomsday reports are reliable click-bait, and faltering consumer confidence suggest that a lot of people believe…Continue reading

May 11, 2022

The Truth About Today’s Inflation

The conventional wisdom about inflation needs a course correction.  Here's why: The Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that the wages and total compensation of Americans working full-time at least kept pace with inflation from January through March.  Based on what people tell government surveyors, median weekly earnings after inflation stabilized in the first quarter of 2022 after falling steadily through…Continue reading

April 14, 2022

Trump’s Attacks on the 2020 Census Cost Six States with…

Donald Trump’s most consequential legacy may be the debate he spurred about democracy.  The issue is whether our democracy truly includes everyone, a choice evident in the 2020 election and Ketanji Jackson Brown’s Supreme Court nomination.  Should public life in the United States be based on open-ended inclusiveness or on the hierarchy that prevailed for much of our history?  That’s…Continue reading

April 5, 2022

A Case Study of the Costs of Rate Reregulation: America’s…

The railroad industry can give us some singular insights into the conditions, costs and benefits of economic regulation, and today’s essay is for those interested in those insights. When Congress created the Interstate Commerce Commission (ICC) in 1887 to regulate railroad routes and rates, it made a great deal of economic sense.  Railroads had become the only economical way to…Continue reading

February 23, 2022

Conventional Wisdom is Wrong: Americans Are Better Off Even AFTER…

According to conventional wisdom, inflation has left most Americans poorer. It’s an odd view, given that the number of people with jobs jumped by 4.7 percent in 2021, and the economy grew by 5.7 percent after inflation. It was the U.S. economy’s best performance in decades. If people are poorer, why did household spending jump by 8.8 percent in 2021,…Continue reading

January 19, 2022

Americans Should Celebrate the Best Jobs Market in Generations

Last Sunday on Meet the Press, James Carville offered Democrats good advice: “Quit being a whiny party and get out there and tell people what you did … the exact truth.”  On the vital issue of jobs, they should be cheering, because the Biden administration has helped create and sustain a remarkable employment boom.  When it comes to what’s been…Continue reading