Trump’s Perfect Storm that Could Sink the American Economy
Donald Trump has steered the American economy into a perfect storm. In the book, film, and now in real life, a rare combination of destructive forces comes together and magnifies the damage. This storm could break the U.S. economy. Trump’s tariffs are the most destructive force. Their first-order damages begin by arbitrarily driving up the prices of every product and… Continue reading
Grading Obama and the GOP Hopefuls on their Plans for…
Last week’s GOP debate at the Reagan Library, followed the next night by the President’s address to Congress, threw into stark relief the strengths and weaknesses of each side’s understanding of jobs and the economy. The Republican hopefuls get a gentleman’s C on the impact of regulation on economic activity. But their approaches to the overall economy and job creation ranged…Continue reading
For a Strong Economy, Keep Europe Afloat and Keep Americans…
The persistent sluggishness of the recovery here in the United States and in most of the world’s advanced economies should underscore a stark lesson from economic history: Systemic financial crises are the products of deep economic problems, and they can’t be solved by simply treating the after-effects of slow growth. It’s long overdue that the United States and Europe directly…Continue reading
The Best Advice for the President: Think Big and Move…
In good times, a President without clear economic policies may not suffer for it. But in shaky and uncertain times like today, failing to advance a coherent strategy to ease people’s genuine economic troubles can be fatal politically, for a president or his opponent. Yet, it happens with some regularity, often because the candidate simply prefers to talk about foreign…Continue reading
This Week’s Debt Deal Is George W. Bush’s Revenge –…
There is plenty of blame to go around for the recent debt and deficit shenanigans, but who should get the credit?   I nominate George W. Bush. Not only did his administration’s negligence secure the foundations for the financial upheavals which ultimately created much of the short-term deficit. The role of his tax cuts in driving much of the medium term…Continue reading
The Real Crisis Here Isn’t Over the Budget or the…
The United States, everyone seems to agree, faces an economic crisis, though its character depends on who raises the alarm. Most economists are mainly worried about financial turmoil and a deep slump if the U.S. government defaults on its sovereign obligations.  Traditional conservatives fret about the prospects for future business investment and growth if Washington doesn’t cut deeply into its…Continue reading
The Real Dangers from the New Austerity
To an economist, the current crusade by congressional Republicans to slash spending during a slow expansion seems to be about half ideology — the crude Tea Party view that most of what government does is corrupt or wasteful — and about half simple partisanship. But it’s hard to ignore the fact that so many governments have been gripped by a…Continue reading
Globalization 2.0 and the Rise of the Rest
International economic conferences like the one I attended in Rio a few weeks ago can be a little tedious, when experts debate their latest econometric models. Yet, I sat up and listened very intently when an IMF official remarked, almost as an aside, that the world’s emerging economies would account for 48 percent of global GDP this year. That means…Continue reading
The Cost of Playing Games with the Full Faith and…
I spent last week in Rio attending a meeting of the IMF’s advisory board for the Western Hemisphere — and returned this week to Washington for the latest round of threats and charges over raising the U.S. debt limit. The contrast was, at once, disturbing and farcical. At the IMF meeting, former finance ministers, prime ministers and other ex-economic policy…Continue reading