Trump’s Perfect Storm that Could Sink the American Economy
Donald Trump has steered the American economy into a perfect storm. In the book, film, and now in real life, a rare combination of destructive forces comes together and magnifies the damage. This storm could break the U.S. economy. Trump’s tariffs are the most destructive force. Their first-order damages begin by arbitrarily driving up the prices of every product and… Continue reading
Running on Empty: The Economics and Politics of Gasoline Prices
Mother Nature is intervening again in U.S. energy markets. Just as falling oil prices are puncturing upward pressures on gasoline prices, prospects of serious flooding in areas of the Gulf states where refineries are concentrated has sent gas future prices soaring again. With the economy sputtering a bit again, it’s not welcome news for the President, or for the rest…Continue reading
Cutting Long-Term Deficits Alone Won’t Fix the Economy
Washington is mesmerized these days with the two parties’ various stratagems to turn the deficit debate to their own advantage.  But all this political maneuvering may carry a big cost for Americans, as it sidelines any serious action on our larger, more immediate economic problems. The U.S. expansion is in some danger today, but not from the deficit projections for…Continue reading
President Obama Wins the First Round with Paul Ryan
Yesterday’s presidential address on fiscal policy was a very striking scene. The venue was a small auditorium at George Washington University. Invitations went out just two days earlier; and with so little notice, GWU students made up more than half of the audience. Former Democratic economic policy officials — myself and perhaps 10 others — directors of Democratic-allied policy shops,…Continue reading
Why Big Banks Want Americans to Pay More for Everything
Once again, the nation’s big banks are working hard to have their own way with some of the most consequential issues before Congress. Tucked into the small print of Paul Ryan’s budget plan for 2012 and beyond are provisions to roll back the key regulatory steps taken to make another financial meltdown less likely, especially higher capital requirements tied to…Continue reading
Forget about Spending and Get Serious about the Economy
Washington today, especially the Congress, has a textbook case of cognitive dissonance. A confluence of black swan developments may well threaten the American and global recoveries. There’s the civil war in Libya and unrest across much of the Middle East that could disrupt world energy supplies, the natural catastrophes in Japan may upend the world’s third largest economy, and several…Continue reading
The Aftershocks for the U.S. Economy from the Disaster in…
As the damage to Japan and its economy from the recent natural disasters deepens, we can begin to see serious potential aftershocks for our own economy. In certain respects, the United States relies on our broad and intricate financial and trading relationships with Japan. China has surpassed Japan as the world’s largest buyer of U.S. Treasury securities. But Japan remains…Continue reading
The Economic After Shocks of the Disaster in Japan –…
Natural disasters can strike anywhere, but the heart-wrenching tragedy unfolding in Japan may be unique for modern times, at least economically. In today’s post, we focus on what makes last week’s earthquake and tsunami so different from other natural disasters and why they have put Japan’s economy at real risk. Later this week, we will lay out the implications for…Continue reading
The U.S. Economic Debate Gets a Failing Grade at the…
At the private conference this week convened by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), 30 world-class economists talked for two days about “Macro and Growth Policies in the Wake of the Crisis.†Their discussions provided a reality test for the current economic debate in Washington, and the last decade of U.S. policymaking flunked. Economic ideology not only blinded American policymakers to…Continue reading