Trump’s Perfect Storm that Could Sink the American Economy
Donald Trump has steered the American economy into a perfect storm. In the book, film, and now in real life, a rare combination of destructive forces comes together and magnifies the damage. This storm could break the U.S. economy. Trump’s tariffs are the most destructive force. Their first-order damages begin by arbitrarily driving up the prices of every product and… Continue reading
After the Trump Verdict: This Week’s Polls Mean Little to…
No one knows if Donald Trump’s 34 felony convictions will move many Americans when they vote in five months. Nevertheless, the early surveys probably cheered Joe Biden’s White House: A Reuters/Ipsos post-verdict poll showed the president now leading Trump by 2 points (41 to 39), compared to the pre-verdict RealClearPolitics average with Trump ahead by 2 points (42 to 40).…Continue reading
Trump’s Plans for Unauthorized Immigrants are Brutal—and Would Bring On…
Donald Trump’s fierce enmity towards immigrants is a central theme of his campaign, as it was in 2016. This time, though, he is offering detailed plans that, if carried out, would inflict misery on a mass level and major costs for taxpayers and the economy. Trump’s plans include once again barring entry from selected Muslim-majority countries and, despite the waning…Continue reading
The Last of the Baby Boomers Are Turning 65, And…
Between now and 2030, nearly 30 million Americans born between 1959 and 1964 will turn 65, the tail end of the Baby Boom generation. As the largest cohort on record to reach retirement age, they are often called the “peak boomers.” In a new study supported by the Alliance for Lifetime Income, my co-author Luke Stuttgen and I found that…Continue reading
Based on Incomes, Americans Are a Lot Better Off Under…
In their only 1980 presidential debate, Ronald Reagan posed a famous question that sealed Jimmy Carter's political fate: "Are you better now than you were four years ago?" Bill Clinton similarly denied George H. W. Bush a second term in 1992 by running a campaign based on James Carville's famous expression, "It's the economy, stupid." Donald Trump faces a real…Continue reading
Data Don’t Lie: Biden’s Economic Record is Much Better than…
Donald Trump's prospects for a second presidential term may well rest on whether voters accept his proposition that facts no longer matter. A case in point is his narrative that the economy was stronger during his presidency than under President Joe Biden. With few reality checks from the economic media, most of the public apparently agrees: One recent survey found…Continue reading
Why Biden’s Good Economic News Hasn’t Helped Him Politically —…
Americans’ negative views about President Joe Biden’s stewardship of the economy may be the biggest challenge to his reelection. Despite healthy GDP growth and the largest job gains on record over his 35 months in office, the latest Gallup poll found that people disapprove of the president’s handling of the economy by a 67-to-32 percent margin. The latest Morning Consult survey reported that 51 percent…Continue reading
When You Know How Polls Work, You Realize that the…
Despite four criminal indictments with 91 felony charges, recent surveys show Donald Trump leading Joe Biden narrowly. Or by as much as 10 points. Or trailing by a point or two. Or down by five. This array of results has left many Democrats and some Republicans anxious about their candidate’s prospects. They should take a breath and get back to…Continue reading
Trade Agreements Have Created U.S. Jobs And Raised U.S. Incomes
The rising political opposition to open trade from both the left and the right is an instance, and one among many, of how today’s policy debates become decoupled from reality. On this Labor Day week, recognizing how our current trade and investment arrangements generate broad benefits for workers and consumers matters, lest the growing anti-trade faction unwittingly unravels them. A…Continue reading