Trump’s Perfect Storm that Could Sink the American Economy
Donald Trump has steered the American economy into a perfect storm. In the book, film, and now in real life, a rare combination of destructive forces comes together and magnifies the damage. This storm could break the U.S. economy. Trump’s tariffs are the most destructive force. Their first-order damages begin by arbitrarily driving up the prices of every product and… Continue reading
The Economy Is Doing Fine, for the Time Being
Republican charges of a “Biden recession” during the midterm campaign failed to ignite a red wave, and the latest release of data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) explains why. In the third quarter, the economy grew 2.9 percent after inflation. That strong growth is revised from the BEA’s 2.6 percent estimate released just before the midterm election, and…Continue reading
C’mon, Democrats, Tout Your Economic Record: It’s a Very Good…
Drawing on the fact-free politics of Donald Trump, Republicans are selling the meme that Americans are much worse off economically and financially under President Joe Biden and the Democrats. That is demonstrably untrue. Yet, the Democrats’ main response has been to mumble an apology for the inflation they didn’t cause and try and change the subject. That approach won’t work,…Continue reading
Who Was Hired and Who Was Fired during the Pandemic
COVID-19 unleashed an earthquake in American labor markets—and its aftershocks are still with us. In March-May 2020, 20.3 million people abruptly lost their jobs; only half as many were hired over the following seven months. But businesses hired workers at turbocharged rates in 2021 and 2022. By May and June of this year, employment had fully recovered from the pandemic.…Continue reading
Yes, Americans Are Better Off Under Biden
Ronald Reagan closed his presidential debate with Jimmy Carter in October 1980 urging Americans to ask if they were better off than they were four years ago. Of course, Reagan, like a sharp prosecutor, knew the answer before he asked the question. Inflation and unemployment were soaring. Perhaps the reason why Republicans aren’t posing that question today is that they…Continue reading
Hey, Folks, We’re Not in a Recession
Rules of thumb are often misleading. Biden administration critics have seized on an axiom that two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth signal a recession, one not followed by any economist I know. Thankfully, the official arbiter of whether and when a recession has begun, the Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research, applies more nuanced…Continue reading
The Case for Bill Clinton’s Economic Record
How do you argue with success? One answer is, become a Democrat. Joe Biden learned this lesson recently when many in his party dismissed the 5.7 percent economic growth and 6.2 million new jobs created in his first year and instead complained about his inability to corral Joe Machin to support Build Back Better. A more far-reaching instance is the…Continue reading
A Recession is Not Looming
The media’s view of the economy has turned dark. The Washington Post cautions its readers on “How to recession-proof your life,” ABC News talks about “How to prepare for a possible recession,” and Bloomberg says, “U.S. Recession Is Now More Likely than Not.” These doomsday reports are reliable click-bait, and faltering consumer confidence suggest that a lot of people believe…Continue reading
The Truth About Today’s Inflation
The conventional wisdom about inflation needs a course correction. Here's why: The Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that the wages and total compensation of Americans working full-time at least kept pace with inflation from January through March. Based on what people tell government surveyors, median weekly earnings after inflation stabilized in the first quarter of 2022 after falling steadily through…Continue reading