Trump’s Perfect Storm that Could Sink the American Economy
Donald Trump has steered the American economy into a perfect storm. In the book, film, and now in real life, a rare combination of destructive forces comes together and magnifies the damage. This storm could break the U.S. economy. Trump’s tariffs are the most destructive force. Their first-order damages begin by arbitrarily driving up the prices of every product and… Continue reading
The Economic Tea Leaves Point to a Downturn in 2020
Do the latest economic data signal a recession is coming? The best answer is, yes, but not quite yet: The economic tea leaves point to a recession beginning over the next 12 to 15 months – so, just in time for the 2020 presidential campaign. The jobs numbers for February were released last Friday, and they were awful – gains…Continue reading
The Shutdown Poses a Serious Threat to the American Economy
The government shutdown has produced a serious economic threat that’s hiding in plain sight: The people who collect, analyze and release all the basic data tracking the path of the economy and its principal aspects are on furlough. So, the shutdown has forced thousands of companies and financial institutions and millions of investors to rely on guesswork instead of data,…Continue reading
The Other Dark Cloud on the President’s Horizon Is a…
Even as Donald Trump struggles with the multiple investigations of his personal business and political dealing and those of his children, his presidential campaign, inaugural committee, businesses and foundation, he will also have to keep a close eye on the economy. The economy’s course in 2019 will help shape the political environment for Americans as they weigh the results of…Continue reading
The Latest Outlook on the Economy: Another Canary Swoons
For several months, I’ve written about growing signals of a possible recession perhaps 10 to 15 months from now. The yield curve has flattened dramatically, because global investors are nervous about our near-term prospects. Investment growth after depreciation has slowed, even with Trump’s costly tax cuts. Inflation has picked up some steam, and interest rates have risen accordingly. Most important,…Continue reading
Don’t be fooled: Working Americans are worse off under Trump
Despite robust economic numbers during the Trump presidency, the American public has seemed curiously unmoved by good news such as the lowest U.S. unemployment level in nearly half a century. Its enthusiasm might have been dampened by this underappreciated economic reality: The typical working American’s earnings, when properly measured, have declined during the Trump administration. As any White House would,…Continue reading
The decennial Census has big political and scientific problems, and…
At virtually every level, the 2020 decennial Census is in serious trouble. The Trump administration continues to press for a new Census question on each respondent’s citizenship status, despite warnings from the National Academy of Sciences and others that the question will discourage millions of immigrants and others from responding at all. The administration also has sharply cut the funding…Continue reading
Donald Trump’s Economic Record is Mediocre, and the Outlook Is…
Ignoring the facts while praising yourself is second nature to many politicians, and a case in point is Donald Trump’s claims that his stewardship of the economy puts his predecessors to shame. In recent months, President Trump has tweeted that economic growth under his presidency "is better than it has been in many decades,” “the Economy is raging at an…Continue reading
The Case for Reforming the United States Postal Service
Last week, President Donald Trump issued an Executive Order creating a new task force to evaluate how the United States Postal Service (USPS) operates and funds itself. The order followed two weeks of presidential tweets about the Amazon-USPS relationship. Trump has raised serious concerns that may need to be addressed, but he seems to blame the wrong party. The heart…Continue reading