Trump’s Perfect Storm that Could Sink the American Economy
Donald Trump has steered the American economy into a perfect storm. In the book, film, and now in real life, a rare combination of destructive forces comes together and magnifies the damage. This storm could break the U.S. economy. Trump’s tariffs are the most destructive force. Their first-order damages begin by arbitrarily driving up the prices of every product and… Continue reading
Asking about Citizenship Status in the 2020 Census Is Dangerous…
Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross’s decision last week to “reinstate” a question on citizenship status in the 2020 decennial Census (it was last asked in 1950), almost certainly will vastly increase the number of people who ignore or evade the 2020 decennial Census. The policy will certainly discourage undocumented immigrants from filling out a Census form, and so lower the official…Continue reading
Trump’s SOTU Economic Agenda: Self-Congratulations and Empty Threats — But…
In less than a week, President Donald Trump will deliver his first State of the Union (SOTU) address. It’s safe to assume that he will follow his predecessors in casting his first year in office as a series of triumphs. With the government shutdown over for now, Trump will congratulate himself for resolving it. His economic message will highlight the…Continue reading
The New Economics of Jobs Is Bad News for Working…
Many political observers still seem flummoxed by the fact that millions of working-class Americans voted for Donald Trump after supporting Barack Obama not once but twice. One important reason may lie in certain large-scale changes in America’s job market over the last decade. The growing role of a college degree in landing a job is well documented. Now, new household…Continue reading
Does Science Prove that the Modern GOP Favors the Rich?
Virtually everyone outside the Trump administration agrees that the GOP tax plans passed by the House and the Senate will aggravate income inequality. In fact, the party-line votes on both plans are the latest instance of a remarkable fact: Over the last 40 years, income inequality has accelerated when Republicans held the White House, the Congress or both, and slowed…Continue reading
Evaluating the Claim that Cutting Corporate Taxes Will Raise Your…
Real disputes among professional economists rarely make their way into political debates. But that’s what’s happened with the issue of whether the Trump administration’s proposal to cut the corporate tax rate from 35 percent to 20 percent would mainly benefit shareholders or workers. Both sides make coherent arguments – but in the end, the evidence supports the proposal’s opponents. Those…Continue reading
Blame the Economy for Widening Inequality – And Washington for…
America’s widening income inequality has become a subtext across most debates in domestic policy. GOP plans to repeal and replace Obamacare failed in large part because virtually every expert warned that the changes would end coverage for millions of people with modest incomes and cut taxes for high-income people. President Donald Trump’s push to cut business taxes will likely meet…Continue reading
A New GOP Nightmare: Trump and Democrats Cut a Deal…
Here they go again. Despite the Republicans’ control of the presidency and both houses of Congress, their internal divisions keep on frustrating their plans to accomplish anything of consequence. So, the most polarizing GOP president since Abraham Lincoln has come up with a startling work-around: Cut deals with the Democrats on selected major matters, including funding the government, raising the…Continue reading
The Three Choices for Tax Reform
Trump administration officials and GOP leaders in Congress are still putting together their tax plan. Nevertheless, the early signs point to decisions that could sink the project or produce changes that would jeopardize economic growth. Congress can approach changing the corporate tax in one of three ways. It can try to simplify the code, it can reform it, or it…Continue reading