Trump’s Perfect Storm that Could Sink the American Economy
Donald Trump has steered the American economy into a perfect storm. In the book, film, and now in real life, a rare combination of destructive forces comes together and magnifies the damage. This storm could break the U.S. economy. Trump’s tariffs are the most destructive force. Their first-order damages begin by arbitrarily driving up the prices of every product and… Continue reading
Why, Yes, We Do Have to Regulate Some Executive Pay
The House of Representatives has committed some fumbles this year, but the legislation passed last week to regulate executive compensation in large public companies is sorely overdue. By any plausible standard, compensation for the very upper reaches of American business has been out of control for a long time. In 1991, candidate Bill Clinton scolded corporate America for rewarding the…Continue reading
The Fault Lines in the U.S.-China Relationship
The fault lines in this week’s “strategic dialogue†between American and Chinese leaders remained largely unseen, like a low-grade infection that can flare up without warning. Those fault lines matter mightily, however, because the United States and China are the critical players in the globalization process shaping every economy in the world. And despite America’s insecurities about China’s rising power,…Continue reading
Noticing and Solving the Problem with Jobs and Wages
America’s vaunted job-creating machine has been breaking down, and the administration is finally noticing. It was in 2003 when I first asked myself whether the dynamics that normally produce lots of new jobs when the economy expands were changing in some fundamental way. I had noticed that job losses during the mild 2001 recession were five to six times as…Continue reading
Politicians Who Ignore the Problem with Jobs May End Up…
While public debate about jobs usually focuses on the unemployment rate, what matters more are the changes in the number of people still working and how many hours they’re working, because that determines how much wealth and income the economy produces. On these matters, major developments are unfolding which could play decisive roles in determining not only the economic prospects…Continue reading
The Lessons of LBJ and Robert McNamara for Barack Obama
Robert McNamara died this week, but his life holds lessons for Barack Obama’s presidency. Arguably the leading light of JFK’s stable of the best and the brightest, McNamara’s work as an architect and prime executor of LBJ’s Vietnam debacle is well remembered by tens of millions of boomers who came of age during Vietnam, as well as the President. The…Continue reading
Will Higher Savings Help or Hurt the Economy?
What happens if Americans come out of the current downturn with a serious commitment to save more? There are many sound and obvious reasons for people to save — to build up a cushion should they lose their jobs, for example, accumulate the down payment for a house, cover their children’s college tuition, and be able to retire on more…Continue reading
Sensory Overload Produces Sloppy Policy
Washington policymaking is caught in its own version of sensory overload. All at once, there are too many problems that seem — and actually are — urgent, mind-bogglingly complex, and politically ultra-sensitive to handle well. The result now emerging could be waves of ill-considered decisions. Exhibit A is climate change. Taking serious measures to protect the planet’s climate and ecosystems…Continue reading
Choices in Universal Health Care
Beijing, China — As the health care debate in Washington begins in earnest, a quick trip around the world over the last week has given me a fresh perspective. My first stop was Sweden, to deliver a talk on America’s economic prospects, post-financial crisis. But, first, I found I had to see a doctor for a mild, recurrent eye infection,…Continue reading