Reconciliation: How the Democrats Can Run the Table
Congressional Democrats will take office in January with the broadest mandate since the post-Watergate midterms in 1974—twice the popular-vote margin the Contract-with-America Republicans won in 1994. The work begins with dismantling most of what Donald Trump and his corrupt, incompetent administration have done over the past two years. Much of what Trump wrought came through his One Big Beautiful (sic)… Continue reading
The Latest Outlook on the Economy: Another Canary Swoons
For several months, I’ve written about growing signals of a possible recession perhaps 10 to 15 months from now. The yield curve has flattened dramatically, because global investors are nervous about our near-term prospects. Investment growth after depreciation has slowed, even with Trump’s costly tax cuts. Inflation has picked up some steam, and interest rates have risen accordingly. Most important,…Continue reading
Don’t be fooled: Working Americans are worse off under Trump
Despite robust economic numbers during the Trump presidency, the American public has seemed curiously unmoved by good news such as the lowest U.S. unemployment level in nearly half a century. Its enthusiasm might have been dampened by this underappreciated economic reality: The typical working American’s earnings, when properly measured, have declined during the Trump administration. As any White House would,…Continue reading
The decennial Census has big political and scientific problems, and…
At virtually every level, the 2020 decennial Census is in serious trouble. The Trump administration continues to press for a new Census question on each respondent’s citizenship status, despite warnings from the National Academy of Sciences and others that the question will discourage millions of immigrants and others from responding at all. The administration also has sharply cut the funding…Continue reading
Donald Trump’s Economic Record is Mediocre, and the Outlook Is…
Ignoring the facts while praising yourself is second nature to many politicians, and a case in point is Donald Trump’s claims that his stewardship of the economy puts his predecessors to shame. In recent months, President Trump has tweeted that economic growth under his presidency "is better than it has been in many decades,” “the Economy is raging at an…Continue reading
The Case for Reforming the United States Postal Service
Last week, President Donald Trump issued an Executive Order creating a new task force to evaluate how the United States Postal Service (USPS) operates and funds itself. The order followed two weeks of presidential tweets about the Amazon-USPS relationship. Trump has raised serious concerns that may need to be addressed, but he seems to blame the wrong party. The heart…Continue reading
Asking about Citizenship Status in the 2020 Census Is Dangerous…
Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross’s decision last week to “reinstate” a question on citizenship status in the 2020 decennial Census (it was last asked in 1950), almost certainly will vastly increase the number of people who ignore or evade the 2020 decennial Census. The policy will certainly discourage undocumented immigrants from filling out a Census form, and so lower the official…Continue reading
Trump’s SOTU Economic Agenda: Self-Congratulations and Empty Threats — But…
In less than a week, President Donald Trump will deliver his first State of the Union (SOTU) address. It’s safe to assume that he will follow his predecessors in casting his first year in office as a series of triumphs. With the government shutdown over for now, Trump will congratulate himself for resolving it. His economic message will highlight the…Continue reading
The New Economics of Jobs Is Bad News for Working…
Many political observers still seem flummoxed by the fact that millions of working-class Americans voted for Donald Trump after supporting Barack Obama not once but twice. One important reason may lie in certain large-scale changes in America’s job market over the last decade. The growing role of a college degree in landing a job is well documented. Now, new household…Continue reading