Based on Incomes, Americans Are a Lot Better Off Under…
In their only 1980 presidential debate, Ronald Reagan posed a famous question that sealed Jimmy Carter's political fate: "Are you better now than you were four years ago?" Bill Clinton similarly denied George H. W. Bush a second term in 1992 by running a campaign based on James Carville's famous expression, "It's the economy, stupid." Donald Trump faces a real… Continue reading
Yes, Americans Are Better Off Under Biden
Ronald Reagan closed his presidential debate with Jimmy Carter in October 1980 urging Americans to ask if they were better off than they were four years ago. Of course, Reagan, like a sharp prosecutor, knew the answer before he asked the question. Inflation and unemployment were soaring. Perhaps the reason why Republicans aren’t posing that question today is that they…Continue reading
Hey, Folks, We’re Not in a Recession
Rules of thumb are often misleading. Biden administration critics have seized on an axiom that two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth signal a recession, one not followed by any economist I know. Thankfully, the official arbiter of whether and when a recession has begun, the Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research, applies more nuanced…Continue reading
The Case for Bill Clinton’s Economic Record
How do you argue with success? One answer is, become a Democrat. Joe Biden learned this lesson recently when many in his party dismissed the 5.7 percent economic growth and 6.2 million new jobs created in his first year and instead complained about his inability to corral Joe Machin to support Build Back Better. A more far-reaching instance is the…Continue reading
A Recession is Not Looming
The media’s view of the economy has turned dark. The Washington Post cautions its readers on “How to recession-proof your life,” ABC News talks about “How to prepare for a possible recession,” and Bloomberg says, “U.S. Recession Is Now More Likely than Not.” These doomsday reports are reliable click-bait, and faltering consumer confidence suggest that a lot of people believe…Continue reading
The Truth About Today’s Inflation
The conventional wisdom about inflation needs a course correction. Here's why: The Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that the wages and total compensation of Americans working full-time at least kept pace with inflation from January through March. Based on what people tell government surveyors, median weekly earnings after inflation stabilized in the first quarter of 2022 after falling steadily through…Continue reading
Trump’s Attacks on the 2020 Census Cost Six States with…
Donald Trump’s most consequential legacy may be the debate he spurred about democracy. The issue is whether our democracy truly includes everyone, a choice evident in the 2020 election and Ketanji Jackson Brown’s Supreme Court nomination. Should public life in the United States be based on open-ended inclusiveness or on the hierarchy that prevailed for much of our history? That’s…Continue reading
A Case Study of the Costs of Rate Reregulation: America’s…
The railroad industry can give us some singular insights into the conditions, costs and benefits of economic regulation, and today’s essay is for those interested in those insights. When Congress created the Interstate Commerce Commission (ICC) in 1887 to regulate railroad routes and rates, it made a great deal of economic sense. Railroads had become the only economical way to…Continue reading
Conventional Wisdom is Wrong: Americans Are Better Off Even AFTER…
According to conventional wisdom, inflation has left most Americans poorer. It’s an odd view, given that the number of people with jobs jumped by 4.7 percent in 2021, and the economy grew by 5.7 percent after inflation. It was the U.S. economy’s best performance in decades. If people are poorer, why did household spending jump by 8.8 percent in 2021,…Continue reading